Russian terror is on display. Russia targeted its’ most accurate missile, the Iskander, against the Ria Pizza restaurant June 27 in Kramatorsk, Ukraine in the eastern region of Donetsk. The 11 dead include two 14-year-old twin girls as well as a 17-year-old. The 56 wounded included an 8-month-old baby, the picture of whose bloodied body is impossible to look at.
Despite Russia’s later claim that it does not target civilians, Russia’s use of its most accurate missile, the Iskander, to attack the restaurant says otherwise. The Iskander is almost impossible to intercept except with a Patriot system which is not available to cover every Ukrainian city. Ukraine’s intelligence services have arrested the suspected Russian agent seen photographing the restaurant. Russia’s object is to terrorize the free people of Ukraine into submission. Russia instead has only increased the resolve of Ukrainians to resist.
No wonder American support for providing weapons to Ukraine has increased sharply from 46% in May to 65% now. It is a non-partisan issue. Reuters reports a clear majority of voters of both parties support the assistance.
President Biden’s recent $500 million weapons package understandably focuses on Ukraine’s most immediate needs in the field as Ukraine struggles to break through the Russian mines and trenches. The drawdown authority includes funds for 30 Bradley fighting vehicles, 25 Stryker armored personnel carriers, more Javelins, 50-mile HIMAR rockets, and Patriot and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
The House Foreign Affairs Committee though argues the Administration needs to go further. The committee passed a resolution June 21 calling on President Biden immediately to supply 190-mile range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine. Well before that, Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker, the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, back in February called for the Administration to supply ATACMS “immediately.”
There are a limited number of ATACMS in inventory (a 1000 or so), their manufacture is painstakingly slow, and General Milley has expressed concern with coverage in the event of a conflict with North Korea or China. Fortunately, in May the British stepped up to take up some of the slack with long range Storm Shadow missiles that can reach 155 miles. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Parliament Storm Shadow has had a “significant impact on the battlefield” and that Britain “will simply not stand by as Russia kills civilians.” Further, “Russia must recognize that its actions alone have led to such systems being provided to Ukraine.” Storm Shadow attacks include the huge explosion caused in June of the Russian ammunition depot at Rykove just outside the Crimean Peninsula. Similarly, Ukraine Storm Shadow missiles put gaping holes in the Chonhar road bridges between Crimea and Kherson used to supply Russian front lines.
While Storm Shadow has gone a long way toward providing Ukraine deep strike capabilities, Ukraine has consistently asked for the Lockheed Martin made ATACMS. ATACMS can reach further than Storm Shadow (190 miles vs 155). More importantly the lighter ATACMS, while carrying a lesser punch, can be fired from Ukraine’s HIMARS, are cheaper, and can be used in greater volume.
There is no end of long-distance targets if Crimea is to be isolated. For one thing, those Chonhar road bridges at the northern end of Crimea are already under repair and will need to be struck again until they are down. For another, Ukraine will need once again to drop the Kerch bridge linking the east side of Crimea to Russia, this time for good.
Ukraine may want to wait longer to drop the Kerch bridge until first cutting off the rest of the Peninsula on the northern side, including at the narrow Perekop Isthmus at the northwest as well as at those Chonbar bridges at the northeast. For Ukraine may want to give the large Russian population in Crimea that has built up since 2014 a last clear chance to escape east to Russia.
Actually, the Russians have already gone a long way to making sure they will have to leave by taking down the Kakhovka dam across the Dnipro River in early June. By taking the dam down (in a short-sighted move to stop Ukrainian troops from crossing the river at Kherson to attack Russian lines), Russia caused the North Crimean Canal running off the now destroyed Dnipro River reservoir to dry up. Reuters notes the canal had “traditionally supplied 85% of Crimea’s water.” Already there have been reports of Russian troops suffering dysentery in Crimea from lack of clean water. Russia, which has its main port on the Black Sea at stake, has already shot itself in the foot for continued occupation of Crimea.
Indeed, the key to shortening the war and forcing Russia into meaningful negotiations to leave is prompt isolation of Crimea. Crimea is a main source of Russian logistics and attacks on Ukrainian civilians. It is also home to the Black Sea Fleet at Sebastopol which for Putin is the jewel in the crown that must be retained at all costs. Ben Hodges, the Former Commanding General for the US Army in Europe, has pounded the table for over a year to isolate Crimea through US supply of ATACMS to force Russia into a crisis. He tweeted on June 27: “Why does the Biden Administration continue to refuse to provide ATACMS to Ukraine? They could make Crimea untenable for Russian forces, same as when Viet Minh put artillery around French at Dien Bin Phuh. There is no shortage of ATACMS…only shortage of political will.”
To be fair, President Biden’s leadership on Ukraine is admirable if cautioned by the need to balance the nuclear threat. The Administration has included ATACMS for Ukraine in its budget for the next fiscal year starting August 1. However, the new authority is not for off the shelf supply, but to order manufacture of new ATACMS. It could be well into 2024 before the new missiles are available to Ukraine. If the war is to be brought to a close with a Ukrainian victory this year (the sooner the better for the protection of Ukraine’s civilians and the full integration of Ukraine into European security), President Biden will need to supply off the shelf ATACMS to Ukraine-- as Senator Wicker has said, “immediately”. I hope the President, often more thoughtful than partisan on issues of foreign policy, will soon take Senator Wicker’s advice to set free the ATACMS for Ukraine “immediately.” Then Ukraine can cut off Russia’s occupation of Crimea, end the occupation of the rest of its lands, and end Russia’s barbaric attacks on the freedom loving European people of Ukraine.
Robert P. Wise is a Northsider.
