Did we really just go from a global lockdown to global mass demonstrations in the streets? That’s quite a turnaround. So much for social distancing. You can’t keep young people cooped up for long.
As I first predicted three months ago, this was not going to be a repeat of the Spanish Flu. The world had advanced too far for that. A killer virus like that requires isolated populations. The world is far too interconnected.
It’s quite possible that SARS-CoV-2 has been percolating around the world for a lot longer than we realize. There are numerous examples of people who tested positive for the antibodies who were sick last fall. The first SARS outbreak was in 2003.
My wife Ginny thinks she had it five years ago. I remember it well. It was a violent hacking cough from which she nearly passed out. We went to the emergency room for answers, a rarity for the Emmerich family. They had no idea what is was other than some unknown upper respiratory virus.
I was quite sick in late February. I kept joking that it was the COVID. Now I’m wondering if the joke was on me. At the time, tests weren’t available. It seems like every other person I talk to thinks they had it.
As I dove into the world of viruses, I soon realized that science doesn’t know far more than it does now. Studies estimate there are probably more undiscovered human viruses than known human viruses.
Conceptualize this: The average human body contains 300 trillion viruses, including 80 percent of all known species. The human battle against viral infection is an ongoing process that never ends.
Fortunately, the human immune system is a marvel of God. We are still trying to learn all its potent features. We are not helpless babes at the mercy of a killer virus.
Nobody can predict the future. And I was OK with a precautionary period, but the lockdown got taken to an extreme, greatly damaging the world economy which will end up costing far more lives than the virus.
The goal was never to contain the virus, which is impossible, but to keep our hospitals from being overloaded. But somewhere in the panic, the goalposts got moved.
As I write on Monday, June 8, there were 373 U. S. COVID-19 deaths yesterday, the lowest in two months. That’s less than the average daily death rate from infectious diseases in a normal year.
Experts forecasted that Mississippi would need 4,000 ventilators. As of today, Mississippi has 83 patients on ventilators, down from a peak of 110. That’s a huge miss.
This is not to say that COVID-19 is not real. It most certainly is and has killed many. But our panicked response was far out of proportion compared to the risk of the virus. Other than the sick and the very old, COVID-19 is no more threatening than the flu.
It remains to be resolved how the entire world embraced the panic scenario, especially when Farr’s Law was first discovered 180 years ago. So far, COVID-19 has almost perfectly followed the bell shape curve of Farr’s Law regardless of lockdown severity.
This is good news! The European daily fatality rates are now 15 times lower than their peaks. U.S. daily fatalities are a third of peak and continue to decline just like Europe. Famous Sweden, which had the least restrictive lockdown, is seeing similar declines, albeit at a slower rate.
I have been frustrated by the media in many regards. For instance, you will still see articles such as “COVID deaths reach all-time high.” Well, true, even one new death will cause an all time high. But that is nonsense. What matters is the total daily death trend.
As someone who deals in the digital media space, I can tell you this: A headline like that will get a heck of a lot of reads and lots of ad revenue. As readers, we have to be smarter than that.
Our overreaction will leave us with three trillion dollars in new national debt. Some economists believe that’s not a problem since inflation is in check. Maybe so. Maybe not. I fear we are leaving future generations with a huge burden. If so, shame on us.
Even if our shutdown cut the COVID-19 deaths in half, which would be a stretch, it comes out to $30 million per life saved, and most of these would be the elderly and infirm whose days were already numbered.
Mississippi still has state and local lockdown orders. Indoor meetings of more than 50 are still banned. Restaurant seating is limited. There are a whole host of restrictions. It’s time for them to end and for life to get back to normal. If you want to stay home, let that be your personal choice. We live in a free society, or so it is supposed to be.
Caution is still in order: Wash your hands. Keep hand sanitizer in the car. Avoid sick people. If you are sick, get tested and if you have the virus, self-quarantine. There are many practical measures that we can take as a society without draconian governmental edicts.
No doubt as we test more, there will continue to be lots of COVID-19 cases. It’s the daily death rate that matters. If it shoots back up, I will join those clanging the alarm.
Meanwhile, hordes are marching in the streets to protest police brutality. Yes, some police can be brutal. Like every other profession, there are good cops and bad cops. I am personally quite fearful of police. I would never resist arrest or in any way confront an officer. Police are there because we need them to keep law and order. Giving them the power to do their job while simultaneously keeping that power in check is an on-going challenge of modern society. This will never change. Just like viruses, police brutality can never be eradicated, only contained.
I cheer the protestors. This is what a free society is all about. It gives me joy to see a free people demonstrating for a just cause. But just like cops, there are good demonstrators and bad ones. You have to take the wheat with the chaff.
What has changed is technology. We’re in hyperdrive. We are undergoing a grand experiment. What happens when you give everyone in the world instant access to almost all the cumulative knowledge in the world?
Strange things happen and we are watching them unfold before our very eyes at a phenomenally rapid pace.
But one thing won’t change. The providence of our Creator. Smartphones and high-speed internet won’t change that. Nor will human panic.
